Hernandez vs Dolidze Statistical Breakdown

Anthony Hernandez

Submission specialist: 4 sub wins in 8 victories

Moderate volume: 39.35 attempts, 26.96 landed (69% accuracy!)

Extreme grappling focus: 146.35 seconds control time

Elite wrestling: 3.85 takedown attempts, 1.73 success (45% rate)

Excellent defense: absorbs only 14.00 strikes

Roman Dolidze

Knockout artist: 5 KO wins in 9 victories

Higher volume: 51.10 attempts, 24.94 landed (49% accuracy)

Decent control time: 76.19 seconds

Limited wrestling: 0.87 attempts, 0.35 success (40% rate)

Takes more damage: absorbs 21.06 strikes

Fight Analysis:

This is a classic grappler vs striker matchup with clear paths to victory:

The Grappling Mismatch:

Hernandez's 146.35 seconds of control nearly doubles Dolidze's 76.19

3.85 takedown attempts vs 0.87 - Hernandez shoots 4x more

4 submission wins vs 0 - clear finishing advantage on the ground

Striking Dynamics:

Dolidze throws more (51.10 vs 39.35)

But Hernandez is far more accurate (69% vs 49%)

Dolidze's 5 KOs show genuine power

Defensive Metrics:

Hernandez's defense is elite (14.00 absorbed)

Dolidze takes 50% more damage (21.06)

The -330 line for Hernandez reflects:

Why Hernandez is Favored:

Grappling dominance - nearly 2.5 minutes of control per fight

Submission threat - 50% of his wins by submission

Superior defense - hard to hit cleanly

Wrestling frequency - attempts takedowns 4x more often

Most Probable Outcome: Hernandez by submission (40%)

Gets the takedown, accumulates control, finds the neck

His 146 seconds of control time is overwhelming

Alternative Scenarios:

Hernandez by decision (25%) - Grappling control without the finish

Dolidze by KO (25%) - His power is the equalizer

Dolidze by decision (10%) - Keeps it standing all 3 rounds

The Dolidze Path:

Must keep distance and land power shots early

Stuff 80%+ of takedowns or it's over

Target the body to slow Hernandez's shooting

Make him pay for every failed shot

Critical Moment: The first takedown attempt. If Hernandez gets it early, Dolidze may never recover. If Dolidze stuffs it and lands clean, the momentum shifts entirely.

X-Factor: Dolidze's 5 KOs in 9 wins means he needs just one moment. But Hernandez's 69% striking accuracy and elite defense make finding that moment extremely difficult.

This fight likely comes down to whether Dolidze can keep it standing for 15 minutes against a determined grappler.